The bracket is set. The Selection Sunday show is over. And just like every year, there are coaches losing sleep, fanbases furious, and 68 teams that got exactly what they wanted. The 2026 NCAA Tournament is here, and before the first whistle blows on Tuesday night in Dayton, we need to talk about the teams that got left out, the teams nobody is watching, and the ones with a real shot at Indianapolis.

The Snubs: Who Got Left Out

Every year the committee leaves somebody at home who probably should have made the trip. This year was no different.

Auburn (17-16, SEC)

This one stings the most, and Auburn head coach Steven Pearl made sure everyone knew it. The Tigers played the third-toughest schedule in the country per KenPom. They beat Florida in Gainesville, which almost nobody did this season. They beat St. John's, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Pearl went to the podium in Nashville and laid out his case point by point, and honestly, it was a strong one. The problem is the committee has never given an at-large bid to a team with that many losses, and 17-16 just does not look good on paper regardless of strength of schedule. The Tigers lost to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, which cost them their best chance at an automatic bid, and after that their fate was in the committee's hands. Those hands were not kind. Auburn stays home.

Indiana (Big Ten)

This one has a different story. The Hoosiers were safely in the field at one point. Then they lost six of their last seven games and watched everything unravel. By the time they got to the Big Ten Tournament, they needed to win and did not. The damage was done. Indiana had good wins over Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin, but finished 3-10 in Quadrant 1 games, and that number is the one that ended their season. It is now the first time Indiana has missed the NCAA Tournament since 2019, snapping a five-year streak.

Oklahoma (SEC)

Porter Moser's program has been fighting the same battle for years. The Sooners went on a nine-game losing streak in early February and fell below .500. They made a strong late push and reached the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, but the committee has a rule they do not put in writing: no team with that many losses. Oklahoma has now missed the tournament four out of five seasons under Moser.

San Diego State

Coming in with high expectations and returning eight players from their last tournament team, the Aztecs looked loaded on paper. The season just never clicked. They dropped a double-overtime home game to Troy in nonconference play, could not pile up enough Quadrant 1 wins, and despite finishing second in the Mountain West and reaching their conference title game, they ended up with only three Q1 wins. That is not enough when the bubble is as crowded as it was this year. Bid stealers like VCU out of the A-10 and Akron out of the MAC ate into the at-large spots and San Diego State paid the price.

New Mexico and Seton Hall

New Mexico's story was decided in seconds, by all accounts a tournament-week collapse that erased their at-large case. Seton Hall made a late run, nearly beat UConn, and pushed St. John's in the Big East Tournament, but 21-12 in a down Big East year was not enough. The Pirates are now two straight years out of the Dance.

Indiana and Belmont have reportedly decided to decline NIT invitations this year after missing out, which tells you everything about how these programs felt heading into Selection Sunday.



The Bracket: Four No. 1 Seeds, One "Region of Death"

The committee handed out the top seeds to Duke (East), Arizona (West), Michigan (Midwest), and defending champion Florida (South). Here is how each region breaks down.

East Region: Duke's Toughest Road

Duke enters as the No. 1 overall seed with a 32-2 record, fresh off winning the ACC Tournament. Cameron Boozer is the frontrunner for national player of the year and a projected top-3 NBA Draft pick. The Blue Devils look like a championship program. The problem is the East may be the toughest region. UConn is the 2 seed with Dan Hurley chasing a third title in four years. Michigan State is the 3 seed with Tom Izzo, who always finds another gear in March. Kansas is the 4 seed with Darryn Peterson, who many consider the likely No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. And St. John's is the 5 seed, playing under Rick Pitino, who already has two national championships and is hungry for a third. That is four Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame coaches in one bracket. Duke also enters with injury concerns, as junior guard Caleb Foster fractured his foot against North Carolina and center Patrick Ngongba II has been out with foot soreness. Scheyer says both could return during the tournament, but Duke will not be at full strength when they tip off against 16-seed Siena.

Midwest Region: Michigan's to Lose

Michigan spent all 19 weeks in the AP Top 25 this season and finished 31-3. The Wolverines went 19-1 in Big Ten play and lead the conference in scoring at 87.3 points per game while shooting over 50 percent from the field. Yaxel Lendeborg is the Big Ten Player of the Year. The frontcourt combination of Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara is unlike anything in the country. Iowa State is the 2 seed and could be the biggest threat to Michigan in this region. The Cyclones have Joshua Jefferson, a 6-foot-9 forward averaging nearly 17 points, 7-plus rebounds, and almost 5 assists per game. When Michigan and Iowa State potentially meet in Chicago, it should be a war.

West Region: Arizona's Moment

Arizona won the Big 12 Tournament, finished 32-2, and has waited years for this. The Wildcats have not made it past the Sweet Sixteen in more than a decade, and if there is ever a roster built to finally break through, this might be it. Purdue is the 2 seed, and someone quietly dropped $100,000 on the Boilermakers to make the Final Four. Gonzaga is the 3 seed and always dangerous in March.

South Region: The Gauntlet

Florida enters as the defending national champion with a 26-7 record. The Gators have arguably the best frontcourt in the country with Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu. But the South is brutal. Houston is the 2 seed, with guard Kingston Flemings among the best freshmen in the country, alongside veterans Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Illinois is the 3 seed and runs the No. 1 offense in America by KenPom efficiency metrics, led by freshman guard Keaton Wagler who went from an unheralded recruit to one of the most electrifying scorers in college basketball. A potential Florida-Houston Elite Eight rematch of last year's national title game would be one of the best games of the tournament. A potential Houston-Illinois Sweet Sixteen is the matchup every NBA scout is circling on their calendar, as Flemings and Wagler are both projected top-10 picks.

Favorites to Win It All

Duke (+300 to +330 at major books)

The Blue Devils are the betting favorite at most sportsbooks, which makes sense. A 32-2 record, the best player in the country, an ACC championship, and Jon Scheyer's program peaking at the right time. The only real questions are the injuries and the gauntlet they face in the East. Duke has been the pre-tournament favorite ten times overall, tying North Carolina for the most such appearances since 1979. The pre-tournament favorite has won eight of the last 20 tournaments. History is on their side.

Michigan (+325 to +360)

More money has been bet on Michigan at DraftKings than any other team this season. The Wolverines have the most handle of any team at the book. Bettors believe. The numbers are almost impossible to argue with. Michigan, Duke, and Arizona combined account for about 37 percent of all championship money wagered on DraftKings this season. The Wolverines have the size, depth, experience, and coaching to win six straight games in three weeks. If they stay healthy, they are the team to beat.

Arizona (+390 to +425)

Arizona sat atop the national odds board as the top-ranked undefeated team before losing back-to-back games to Kansas and Texas Tech. Nine straight wins to close the season, including the Big 12 championship, rebuilt their momentum. This roster has the look of a team that can finally break through a decade of early exits.

Florida (+600 to +750)

The defending champion enters as a 1 seed in what many consider the toughest region. Florida beat Houston 65-63 last April in Indianapolis. They have the frontcourt, the defensive efficiency, and the tournament experience to do it again. The concern is they lost to Vanderbilt badly in the SEC Tournament and may now face that same Vanderbilt team in the Sweet 16 on Houston's home court.

Sleepers Worth Watching

Houston (10-1 odds)

Many people are not treating Houston as a sleeper because of how good they are. A No. 2 seed with a shot to play in their home building at Toyota Center in the Sweet 16, a stingy defense, and Flemings putting up the numbers of a future lottery pick. If the Cougars can survive the bracket and reach the Elite Eight, a Florida rematch is the tournament's most compelling storyline.

VCU (No. 11 seed, South Region)

VCU has won 16 of their last 17 games under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. They open against a North Carolina team without its best player, Caleb Wilson, who broke his thumb in February. The Tar Heels have gone 5-3 without Wilson but their ceiling dropped significantly when he went down. VCU is live for an upset.

Saint Louis (No. 9 seed, Midwest)

The Billikens shoot 27.2 threes per game and connect at 40.1 percent as a team. Four separate players shoot above 41 percent from three. In a tournament where one hot shooting night can end anyone's season, Saint Louis has the firepower to knock off a higher seed, and they may face a vulnerable Michigan team if things break right.

Akron (No. 12 seed, Midwest)

Three senior guards all shooting above 37 percent from three, in their third straight NCAA Tournament. John Groce has built a program that is built for March, and they draw a short-handed Texas Tech squad to open. Twelve seeds beat five seeds at a historic rate in this tournament. Akron is the pick.

The Bottom Line

This is one of the more wide-open fields in recent memory. You have a legitimate case for at least five or six teams cutting down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6. Duke has the best player and the best overall resume. Michigan has the best numbers in the country. Arizona has the most to prove. Florida has the experience of doing it once already.

The East Region is so deep that Duke might beat three or four tournament-caliber teams just to reach the Final Four. If they come out of that bracket healthy, they are probably the best story in college basketball this spring.

Cameron Boozer versus the world. That is the headline. Everything else is chaos.

First Four tips off Tuesday, March 17 in Dayton. The real madness starts Thursday. Get ready.

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